Pakistan's Nuclear Program

Naeem Salik talks about the Pakistan's nuclear project and its impact on global geo-strategic and geo-political image as it is most described in the international community and their concerns over nuclearized Pakistan. Naeem Salik, a retired Brigadier, further adds the projection of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal by 2025, stating that it would cross the likes of France, China and United Kingdom. Pakistan will be counted as third after United States of America and Russia by 2025. The plutonium production by Pakistan is increasing and it is converting it into warheads. There are multiple reports from the likes of Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (BAS) International Panel on Fissile Material (IPFM), Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and other international organizations like ISIS, FSA and NTI's reports about Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. But the data is recycled, and repeated multiple times and we say that this data is authentic due to absence of conformity by Pakistan's government officials.

Another element which rises questions on the authenticity of reports by the mentioned organization, is based on stereotype and are totally assumptions based about Pakistan's nuclear Arsenal. The international community has wrong facts and figures about the Pakistan's nuclear missiles program because it is due to the absence of information in the public domain as compared to that of Indian Nuclear Arsenal.

The beginning of nuclear doctrinal debate is also interesting not only in the international community but also in Pakistan too. Pakistan has always denial nuclear policy from the beginning till the Indian Nuclear Doctrine in August 1999. Some of the retired military personals have written about the Pakistan's nuclear Doctrine policy and affiliated it with economic resources of the country. According to them, Pakistan is not able to build nuclear weapons on a large scale due to its limited economic resources. They have also written about the nuclear deterrence policy of Pakistan which is in contrast to that of Indian Nuclear doctrine. The foreign minister of Pakistan in 2002, has expressed about the possibility of extending Nuclear Arsenal due to the regional context, changing situation of the South Asian region and to maintain regional balance of power. But Pakistan's policy about nuclear weapons is to have minimum nuclear deterrence.

The nuclear posture of Pakistan as the use of nuclear weapons to counter threats of blackmail as well as to counter the Indian use of nuclear arsenal, is very important in this regard. The nuclear posture of Pakistan, which is evolving in process, is a strong reaction against Indian Cold Start doctrine. Although, it has been highly criticized by the international community due to aggressive in nature and madness, but Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is only to tackle any International threat or violation of the Sovereignty. The current scenario of India-US nuclear deal and India's entry in Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), is making things more Complex. Even India's advancement towards missile defense capability is forcing Pakistan to adopt a strong nuclear doctrine against its adversaries.

Anyhow the Director General of strategic plans division (SPD), interview to the Italian newspaper, suggests that Pakistan has no plan to develop more nuclear missiles. But there have been recent changes which have compelled Pakistan to make some changes in its nuclear policy. The introduction of short-range missiles which can target up to 60 km range and can carry nuclear warheads, is the clear answer to India's cold start doctrine and missile defense system.

Furthermore, the surface and air launched missiles BABUR and RAAD with nuclear warhead capability, is also a part of introduction of the battlefield nuclear warheads. It is due to maintaining the balance of power in South Asian region and to counter the threats to its national security. The development of HATAF series missiles are appreciated by the British experts. Pakistan's dilemma is like that of NATO's in Europe, which feels compelled to exhibit high probability of nuclear usage during any sort of conflict with its adversary. The introduction of battlefield nuclear weapons will lower the nuclear threshold and will raise the probability of a nuclear war in the region. The space for any sort of limited conventional war will surely lead the counterparts into a full nuclear war. The recent transmission in nuclear doctor is not able to counter Indian threat because Pakistani forces are busy in countering terrorism alongside the afghan border. It is creating a clear space of vulnerability and can be exploited by India. On other hand, India is also compelling Pakistan to go for arms race in the region by developing Brahmos missiles and other supersonic missiles which can carry nuclear warheads.

There is a myth about Pakistan's nuclear program that it is one of the fastest growing nuclear program in the world and officially it was called as an Islamic bomb. The scenario changed after 9/11 attack and is labelled as insecure and a threat to the world peace.

The number of nuclear weapons of NPT states are known to the world while Israeli and North Korean nuclear arsenals are not known as both have not ratified non proliferation treaty. India and Pakistan are still in nuclear arms building ways and both have not declared number of nuclear weapons.

There are multiple calculations about the plutonium production annually i.e 100% working capacity will produce 18.25 kg of plutonium and 42-50% working capacity will produce 7-9 kilogram per year by 50 MW plutonium production rector. Anyhow, these are not accurate measurements because there are multiple challenges during a year i.e weather, refueling and stoppages. The quantity of material is also not fixed for Warheads. The plutonium production of Pakistan is estimated 170 kilogram by Global Fissile Material report. The authentic and credible reports suggest that both adversaries are growing their number of nuclear arsenal equally. The estimated data shows that India and Pakistan are growing their number of nuclear weapons rapidly since 2007 to 2015 as India has 130 nuclear weapons and Pakistan has 140. The estimated reports about fissile material by the Global Fissile Material related to India and Pakistan nuclear program are incorrect. According to reports, India was producing 0.52 metric ton of military plutonium which grows to 0.7 metric ton in 2009 and then decreased 0.52 metric ton in 2011. At Evan the reports about Pakistan are not accurate or true as for the estimation of global fissile material. The comparative size of India and Pakistan nuclear fissile production report suggest that Indian production was 3.2 metric ton while Pakistan 3.1 metric ton in 2015. While Indian nuclear program was plutonium based as compared to Pakistan which started in 1999.

There are multiple estimated mis-perceptions and incorrect facts and figures regarding Pakistan's nuclear program as well as of India. If the provided data is accurate than Pakistan must be a country next to United States of America and Russia, having the most nuclear number of nuclear arsenals. There is no government official report nor even any information in public domain regarding nuclear weapons there are only estimated that are available about Pakistan nuclear arsenal and the realistic assessment of the only given or available information.

The current estimate of Pakistan nuclear stock by atomic scientist are 110-130 while others as 110 warheads. Till now, we can say that medium figure of 120. The estimated stock of nuclear warheads would be up to 220-250 according to the nuclear scientist Kristensen and Norris, by the year 2050. While there are some other estimations and assumptions about Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, and all are based upon the production of the plutonium. There is a factor that a Pakistan will continue production of fissile Material by 2025. General Kidwai's remarks are very important with respect to Pakistan's nuclear policy over a period of nearly 20 years. It would have around 200 by 2025 and it depends up on plutonium production. There will be short range as well as medium range ballistic missiles including surface to surface and Air launch cruise measles. The further development of Pakistan's nuclear Arsenal stepped and at the economic factor as well as at the production of the plutonium to fulfill its requirements and to maintain balance of power in South Asia. The recent military exercise by Pakistan word to tackle India's doctrine of cold start. The introduction of short-range battlefield weapon is so raising concerns in India and Pakistan nuclear forces will maintain the balance of power and to counter any external threat to its national security and even would bring major improvements in its nuclear technology.

NOTE:

Special thanks to Brigadier Naeem Salik, who has written

"Pakistan's nuclear force structure by 2025"

and briefly described Pakistan's nuclear program. I am proud and honored to be among his long list of students and this article is a tribute to that beautiful soul. Stay Blessed Dear Respected Sir Naeem Salik.