Alien: Covenant will be the top movie of the weekend after scoring a solid $15.35 million Friday gross. That includes $4.2m in Thursday previews, which means it's going to be quite a bit more Thursday-frontloaded compared to Prometheus. Of note, that $15m opening day is 28% below the $21.46m Friday of Prometheus five years ago. Also, in the realm of useless trivia, it's almost identical to the inflation-adjusted $14.7m opening Friday of Alien 3 25 years ago and below the unadjusted $16m opening Friday of Alien vs. Predator back in 2004. Actually, 3D notwithstanding, Alien vs. Predator and Prometheus performed almost identically in North America when adjusted for inflation, which implies that there may be a kind of domestic ceiling for the franchise.
Anyway, back to the relatively well-reviewed Alien: Covenant! At this juncture, the Alien prequel/Prometheus sequel is looking at an opening weekend of around $40.2 million. That would be 21% below the $51m debut of Prometheus. But there are three very important things to consider before we start whipping out the #CanThisFranchiseBeSaved? hashtag.
First, Prometheus rode into theaters on a wave of advance hype and was somewhat shrouded in mystery. The project, which started as a straight Alien prequel and then morphed into what was basically an original sci-fi thriller with bits-and-pieces of Alien lore, was something of an event picture. It was Ridley Scott's return to the franchise that made him a name and it was a big-budget, R-rated sci-fi horror romp during a time when the R-rating was just slowly starting to come out of hibernation. Prometheus was more of an event, plain and simple.
Second, for what it's worth, Prometheus had actual movie stars in the form of Charlize Theron and Idris Elba. You can argue whether either of them are "openers," but both well-respected and fan-friendly performers are hardcore added value elements. Comparatively, while Alien: Covenant had a solid cast, the likes of Katherine Waterston, Billy Crudup, Danny McBride and Michael Fassbender are not necessarily big draws. Thus, by default, Alien: Covenant was more of a hard IP/brand sell.
Third, and this is a big one, the film only cost $97 million to produce. That's 25% less than Prometheus's $130m budget, which means the picture can handle a comparative come down in North America and worldwide. The previous entry made $126m domestic and a whopping $403m worldwide. Even factoring in franchise decline in North America and overseas exchange rate challenges compared to 2012, Alien: Covenant, which is more of a straightforward horror romp compared to Prometheus, can afford to take a dip and still come out smelling like a winner. And with $46m overseas already heading into the weekend, this one is still on course to justify another trip to the Alien sandbox.
The next wide release was Stella Meghie's Everything, Everything. A $10 million Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc. and MGM co-production, this adaptation of Nicola Yoon's novel about a teen girl suffering from severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) who falls in love with a new neighbor earned an okay $4.7m on Friday. That includes $525,000 in Thursday previews. The Amandla Stenberg/Nick Robinson kid-targeted romance earned mixed-negative reviews but played well enough to its target demographic. It played, at least on Friday, 82% female, 52% under-25, 74% under 25 and 82% under 35-years old.
While this isn't a barn-burning debut, it's closer to the $15 million opening of If I Stay back in August of 2014 than the recent $4.6m/$4.7m debuts of Before I Fall and Edge of Seventeen. And in this environment, where I basically hold my breath for any non-tentpole release, I'll take a $11-$12m Fri-Sun debut for a $10m YA romantic drama and count it as a win. You can argue that the new picture came from a major studio while the other two came from smaller distribution houses, but that didn't save Unforgettable just a month ago. The $48m debut of The Fault in Our Stars really does feel like a lifetime ago.
Fox actually had two new releases this weekend. When they moved Alien: Covenant from August to May, they didn't bother moving Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul away from the exact day they slotted for Alien. To be fair, Fox does this now-and-then (Assassin's Creed and Why Him? both opened over last Christmas), but it was grim news for the wimpy kid. The fourth film needlessly rebooted (with the same director as the last two installments) what was briefly a pretty successful series.
The first three films snagged over/under $75 million worldwide on $15-$22m budgets in 2010, 2011 and 2012. But, five years later and with a new cast that seems to have angered the fanbase, this terribly-reviewed offering earned just $2 million yesterday. That means a likely over/under $7m weekend. That's about what the previous films earned on their first days. Call it a too-late reboot, an unnecessary reboot (even if the kids got too old, there was no reason to recast the parents) or a case of an inferior offering paling in comparison to the previous installments that were available on DVD/VOD.
That's a long-term quandary for the industry at-large, but that's for another day.
